Pessimistic forecasts of a 7.2 percent decline in global semiconductor revenue in 2019

After three straight years of growth, global semiconductor revenue reached $474 billion in 2018, up 13.2 percent year-on-year.But that will change in 2019, when IDC's latest forecast for semiconductor applications (SAF) predicts global semiconductor revenue will fall 7.2 percent to $440 billion.The SAF also forecasts that semiconductor revenues will recover in 2020, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.0 percent in 2018-2023 and reach $524 billion by 2023.

After years of strong demand and rising average selling prices (ASP) growth cycles, the DRAM and NAND markets were oversupplied at the end of last year and will remain so until 2020.Despite the challenging fourth quarter of 2018, revenue from the memory market (DRAM) and NAND reached $99 billion and $55 billion, respectively, in 2018, up 36 percent and 12 percent year-on-year.Excluding DRAM and NAND, the overall semiconductor market grew 8 percent year-on-year in 2018.Non-memory semiconductors are expected to grow 1 percent to $319 billion by 2019.DRAM and NAND will continue to decline in 2019 and 2020.

The strong memory market has led samsung electronics to retain its no. 1 position among semiconductor makers and make three memory makers members of the big four semiconductor companies last year.At the same time, revenue concentration in the semiconductor market is also increasing, with the top 10 companies accounting for 62 percent of the semiconductor market, up from 60 percent in 2017 and 56 percent in 2016.

IDC expects market consolidation to start accelerating as the trade tariff dispute between China and the us escalates.So far, there have been six notable acquisitions and a major Intel spinoff.IDC expects more consolidation in the sensor, connectivity, automotive, artificial intelligence and computer vision markets in 2020 and 2021 as vendors look to drive revenue growth and gain access to new markets.

While the computing industry has experienced strong growth in 2017 and 2018, the SAF forecasts that semiconductor revenues in the computing industry will fall 5.1 percent this year and grow at a compound annual rate of 1.3 percent from 2018 to 2023.The two bright spots in computing are x86 servers and solid-state drives, with compound annual growth rates of 11.3% and 9.8% for 2018-2023, respectively.

This year, semiconductor revenue in the mobile and wireless communications segment will grow 1.8 percent year-on-year, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.8 percent for 2018-2023.Semiconductor revenues from 4G will slow as 5G phones begin to increase in 2020 and become mainstream over the next decade.The RF subsystem in mobile devices will continue to drive major revenue growth as the subsystem continues to support more complexity, more antennas, and an increase in frequency per handset.

As consumer iot devices and home automation continue to gain traction and scale, the consumer semiconductor market will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 6.4 percent in 2018-2023.Connected devices will continue to drive more sensors and processors at the edge of growth.